Computational Mathematics and Computer Modeling with Applications (CMCMA)

Analyzing the influence of treatment awareness rate on COVID-19 pandemic by fractional derivative-based modeling and simulation

https://doi.org/10.48308/CMCMA.2.1.11
Volume 2, Issue 1
June 2023
Pages 11-23
Computational Mathematics and Computer Modeling with Applications (CMCMA)

Document Type : Regular paper

Authors

Kehinde Adekunle Bashiru 1
Mutairu Kayode Kolawole 2
Taiwo Adetola Ojurongbe 3
Aasim Akorede Dhikrullah 4
Hammed Ololade Adekunle 5
Habeeb Afolabi 6

1 Department of Statistics, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria

2 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Osun State university, Osogbo, Nigeria.

3 Department of Statistics, Osun State University, Osogbo.

4 Department of Mathematical Sciences, OSun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria

5 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.

6 Department of Statistical Sciences, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria.

Abstract
Covid-19 disease is a respiratory illness caused by SARS-Cov-2 and poses a serious public health risk. It usually spread from person-to-person. The fractional- order of covid-19 was determined and basic reproduction number using the next generation matrix was calculated. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium of the model were investigated. Also, sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number with respect to the model parameters were carried out. It was observed that in the absence of infected persons, disease free equilibrium is achievable and is asymptotically stable.
Numerical simulations were presented graphically. The results of the model analysis indicated that $R_{0}$ $\mathrm{<}$ 1 is adequate enough to reducing the spread of disease and disease persevere in the population when $R_{0}$ $\mathrm{>}$ 1 The numerical results showed that effective vaccination of the population helps in curtailing the spread of the viral disease.
In order to know whether the disease may die out or persist, basic reproduction number, $R_{0}$ was obtained using Next Generation Matrix Method. It was observed that the value of $R_{0}$ is high when the depletion of awareness programme is high while the value of $R_{o}$ is very low when the rate of implementation of awareness programme is high. So, neglecting the implementation of awareness program can have serious effect on the population. The model shows the implementation of awareness program is the key eradication to the pandemic.

Keywords

COVID-19
Public Enlightenment
Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method
Fractional Derivative
Numerical Simulation
  • Receive Date 22 February 2023
  • Revise Date 04 August 2023
  • Accept Date 08 August 2023

Home

Editorial Board

Guide for Authors

Submit Manuscript

Contact Us

Generative AI policies

Copyright Policy

Licensing Policy

Plagiarism Policy

Self-archiving policies for authors

Open Access Statement